Earlier this week, a procurement list of State Grid quietly appeared in the national power grid bidding website, TBEA, Tianwei change security company is in awesomely row. After the early back slightly after finishing, shortly after the power grid equipment Related Companies will also have what opportunity?
Power grid construction will welcome the climax
From the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" and the national grid bidding situation, the development focus of power grid construction in UHV and smart grid. However, in the different period of time the hot construction. UHV transmission network is expected to usher in the peak construction in 2012~2015 years, will bring the power equipment needs nearly 220000000000 yuan; intelligent power grid construction including power generation, transmission, substation, distribution, electricity, scheduling, is expected to usher in the peak of construction investment in the next five years, will bring the power equipment demand more than 620000000000 yuan.
Long term opportunities for Huatai United securities valued in the power grid construction equipment industry one or two. Equipment to use the main system, transmission, power distribution equipment on time, such as generator, transformer; control, protection, monitoring and measuring equipment is an equipment two equipment, such as measuring instrument, relay, switch etc.. Need one or two equipment the development of UHV and smart grid, but the proportion and degree of importance is not the same.
The smart grid: two equipment market
With the sharp drop in 2010 investment in the power grid, a device for smart grid company performance will decline this year. And the smart grid construction to improve the utilization rate of primary equipment assets, traditional power equipment especially a equipment market capacity will have a negative impact on long-term. CICC forecasts say, traditional primary equipment market will be a corresponding atrophy, a compound annual growth rate of only 3%.
In contrast, the two equipment market is becoming more and more important. At the end of 2010 9, the first tender two equipment required for the pilot project of the national grid smart substation. National Grid said at the same time, field and structure will be the power grid investment appear fine-tuning, proportion of two equipment of smart grid investment will increase. CICC is expected, the two equipment needs an average annual compound growth rate will reach 20%, proportion of investment network equipment will ascend to the next 10 years a total of 11% from the current 5%.
As for the specific benefit products, CICC as follows according to the future market capacity: smart meters (7100000000 ~90 billion), storage battery (average 4500000000 ~60 billion market), intelligent substation (4000000000 ~45 billion), flexible transmission (2900000000 ~41 billion), electric vehicle charging cabinet (2600000000 ~30 billion), distribution automation (1800000000 ~20 billion), intelligent scheduling (1800000000 ~20 billion) and online monitoring device of transformer (1000000000 ~12 billion).
UHV: business status once equipment is difficult to shake
Despite the many disputes on UHV in thrust, but the national grid to promote a strong intention remains unchanged, is expected to completed in North China, East China, central China UHV power grid by 2015, to form a "three vertical and three horizontal ring" pattern. Huatai United Securities is expected to, "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, China's AC and DC UHV total investment will reach 350000000000 ~4000 billion yuan, while in 2010 is expected to UHV investment of less than 30000000000 yuan, the future broad market space.
Ultra high voltage primary equipment production has certain technical barriers, operational reliability and requirements for the product is high, so the market is oligopoly. In the transformer, reactor market is mainly composed of TBEA monopoly, especially the converter in HVDC field is difficult to shake; in UHV Switchgear Market, high-level electrical, new northeast electric, electricity group three minutes of the world; and the valve market in UHV DC, Chinese XD, Xu Ji electric the obvious advantages.
Two equipment of UHV AC, the state power Nari be way ahead, occupy the most market share; DC control and protection system market, occupies most of XJ electric market share, is expected in the future will be the continuation of this situation. But note that, in the construction of special high-voltage field, for an equipment investment will be more focused, and for the two time in equipment of UHV investment ratio will be far less than the primary equipment.
GF Securities pointed out, UHV project income of TBEA, Tianwei change security and high electrical most. However, Pinggao electric traditional business fell more serious, the middle of 2010 operating income and net profit fell 33% and 99%, third quarter gross margin continued to decline to 15%. Considering the company's traditional business fell off on the UHV profit, can focus on the other two Tianwei change security and tbea.